TY - JOUR AU - LAKHDAR, Mohamed AU - BENSBAHOU, Aziz PY - 2020/11/25 Y2 - 2024/03/29 TI - Empirical analysis of the external determinants of the budget deficit: Case of Morocco JF - International Journal of Advances in Scientific Research and Engineering (IJASRE), ISSN:2454-8006, DOI: 10.31695/IJASRE JA - IJASRE VL - 6 IS - 11 SE - Articles DO - 10.31695/IJASRE.2020.33918 UR - https://ijasre.net/index.php/ijasre/article/view/1137 SP - 10-19 AB - <p>This work aims to examine the effect of external variables on the budget balance in Morocco using annual data for the period (1980-2016). The empirical results of the estimation of the VAR model show that the external variables have direct and indirect effects on the budget balance. A positive oil price shock does not have a significant influence on the budget balance in the short term. But, its indirect long-term effect is significant. Furthermore, a positive shock to the real effective exchange rate generates a widening budget deficit. The degree of trade openness has a positive effect on the fiscal balance in the short and long term.</p> ER -