Empirical analysis of the external determinants of the budget deficit: Case of Morocco
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31695/IJASRE.2020.33918Keywords:
Budget Balance, Commercial Opening, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Oil Price, VAR Model.Abstract
This work aims to examine the effect of external variables on the budget balance in Morocco using annual data for the period (1980-2016). The empirical results of the estimation of the VAR model show that the external variables have direct and indirect effects on the budget balance. A positive oil price shock does not have a significant influence on the budget balance in the short term. But, its indirect long-term effect is significant. Furthermore, a positive shock to the real effective exchange rate generates a widening budget deficit. The degree of trade openness has a positive effect on the fiscal balance in the short and long term.
References
Alesina, Alberto, and Roberto Perotti, (1994), «The Political Economy of Budget Deficits », IMF Working Paper No. 94/85
Banque mondiale (2017), indicateurs de développement dans le monde
Bracke,T.,and al (2008) ,« A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances», ECB Occasional paper series n 78.p 12
Cashin, Paul, and Catherine Pattillo, (2000), « Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa: Are TheyShort-Lived or Long-Lived? », IMF Working Paper N° 00/72
Collier, Paul, and Jan W. Gunning,(1999), « Trade Shocks in Developing Countries », Vol. 1 and 2 (Oxford and New York: Oxford university Press).
Combes, Jean-Louis, and Patrick Guillaumont, (2002),« Price Volatility,Vulnerability, and Development », Development Policy Review, Vol. 20, pp. 25–39
EL BAZ ,A (2015) « Interactions entre les variables externes et budgétaire au Maroc : Analyse macroéconométrique » thèse de doctorat, FSJES Marrakech
Guidi, F. (2009), «The economic effects of oil prices shocks on the UK manufacturing andservices sector. » de Munich Personal RePEc Archive. Availablefrom:http://www.mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de.
Mansouri, B. (2003), « Soutenabilité, déterminants et implications macroéconomique desdéficits publics dans les pays en développent : cas du Maroc », Thèse de doctorat d’Etat,Université Hassan II Ain Chock. P: 95
Sims, A.C. (1980), « Macroeconomics and reality. », Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48.
Talvi, Ernesto, and Carlos A. Végh , (2000), « Tax Base Variability and Procyclical FiscalPolicy », NBER Working Paper N° 7499 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of
Tansi, V.(19882) « Fiscal disequilibrium in developing countries», World development n°10
World Bank (2017), data statistical of Global Economic Monito Commodities.
Downloads
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 Mohamed LAKHDAR, Aziz BENSBAHOU

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.