Forecasting Electric Energy Demand For The Period 2020 – 2025 In West Rayon Semarang Region Of Indonesia

Abstract

The planning process of the development of electric power systems needs a forecasting electrical energy consumption in the future. The forecasting results obtained can be considered for policymakers to formulate measures to be taken for the future. It aims to achieve optimization in the electricity production process. In this research, for the supply of electric energy in Rayon West Semarang, forecasting energy consumption from 2020 to 2025 using fuzzy logic and linear regression. This energy consumption forecasting using historical data / actual accumulated in some period of time from 2015 to 2019. The results of forecasting using fuzzy logic amounted to 825000 MWH in 2020 and 1180000 MWH in 2025. While the results of forecasting by using linear regression amounted to 807974,42 MWH in 2020 and 1054482,29 MWH in 2025. The forecasting results are already approaching the PLN actual data 2020 amounted to PLN 823568 MWH with an error value of 0,17%  to fuzzy logic and 1,89% to linear regression.