New Temperature-Dependent Models for Estimating Global Solar Radiation across the Coastal Climatic Zone of Nigeria

Abstract

In this study, five different temperature dependent models were proposed and compared with three existing temperature dependent models (Chen, Hargreaves and Samani (HS) and Garcia) using measured monthly average daily global solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature meteorological parameters during the period of thirty one (1980 – 2010) years. The comparison assessment using seven different statistical validation indices of coefficient of determination (R²), Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Percentage Error (MPE), t-test, Nash – Sutcliffe Equation (NSE) and Index of Agreement (IA) was employed to determine the most accurate model for estimating global solar radiation in the five tropical locations situated in the coastal climatic zone of Nigeria. It was found that in each of the locations under investigation the proposed temperature dependent models were reported more suitable for global solar radiation estimation. In Akure, Ogoja, Ikeja, Benin and Owerri; the proposed quadratic logarithmic, linear exponential, multiple linear, quadratic (exponential 2) and quadratic (exponential 1) temperature dependent models respectively were found more accurate and can be applied to locations with the comparable weather condition, if properly calibrated against the local data. The HS and Garcia temperature dependent models evaluated in this study for Ikeja were compared with those available in literature and was found more accurate. The figures comparing the measured and estimated temperature dependent models indicates that the most accurate models in each location exhibit the best fitting with the measured global solar radiation data.