Forecasting of Climate Changes of Ayeyarwady Delta in Myanmar during 21st Century by MRI-AGCM3.2S Dataset

Abstract

Climate change is associated with both gradual changes in the long-term temperature and precipitation patterns in an area. In
this study, MRI-AGCM3.2S was used to simulate the current climate (1981-2005) and the forecasted climate for the near future (2020-2044) and far future (2075-2099). MRI-AGCM3.2S is developed by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and Japan
Meteorological Agency (JMA). Linear scaling and lumped quantile mapping methods are used in bias-correction for MRIAGCM3.2S under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of A1B. Bias correction is capable of improving the General Circulation Model (GCM) simulated outputs to a certain degree. In this study, the coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) are quantified before and after bias correction. Based on the performances, the lumped quantile mapping technique was identified as a suitable method for correcting the bias. Changes in temperature and precipitation are projected to vary by region and month. The key findings on future climates in each of the regions are presented in terms of temperature increase and precipitation change