Numerical Investigation of Crude Oil Spilled Mangrove Vegetation: A Fire Risk Assessment Modeling of Uvwie Local Government Area of Delta State, Nigeria

Abstract

Numerical risk assessment of an investigative study on small single-lit fire in a simulated environment is carried out. Crude oil from Ubege oil field, Delta state, Nigeria was spilled onto a set of logs of wood, representing the mangrove vegetation. The risk assessment resultant from this study showed that should there be a fire incident, the havoc to be wrecked on the adjoining communities and the immediate community could be devastating. The simulations were carried out by keeping Elapse time and length-to-width ratio constant at 3 hours and 2.3, respectively. The numerical risk modeling showed that over 200, 000 lives and over 150,000 houses, wildlife, and even aquatic lives and billions of dollars of properties could be destroyed by fire. The numerical risk assessment quantified showed that the following communities could be at risk, should there be a crude spill and a source of ignition: the Federal University of Petroleum Resources, Effurun, Iteregbe, Ogbomro, Okorikpereh, parts of Okuokoko, parts of Agbarho. From the study, and its simulations and investigative study, it is strongly recommended that a fire station is established in this vicinity to mitigate a possible fire outbreak.